Squiggle Futures
This analysis considers implied bookmaker to be correct, and calculates
expected Absolute Errors for each model in each match.
Additionally, all missing forecasts have been replaced.
View the current Squiggle leaderboard
here.
The remainder of the season was simulated one million times.
Last run on 25 August at 10:00pm AEST.
| source | Current MAE | Exp MAE | Exp Rank | Make Top 10 | Make Top 3 | Champion |
|---|
| Live Ladders | 26.30 | 26.37 | 1.43 | 100.00% | 96.65% | 71.88% |
| Wheelo Ratings | 26.44 | 26.48 | 2.32 | 100.00% | 89.59% | 16.21% |
| AFL Lab | 26.49 | 26.56 | 3.45 | 99.88% | 54.93% | 8.26% |
| Squiggle | 26.53 | 26.58 | 3.69 | 99.98% | 44.44% | 3.15% |
| Massey Ratings | 26.65 | 26.71 | 5.65 | 98.00% | 9.00% | 0.35% |
| Elo Predicts! | 26.73 | 26.79 | 7.37 | 88.55% | 2.94% | 0.10% |
| ZaphBot | 26.76 | 26.81 | 7.77 | 86.04% | 1.73% | 0.04% |
| Data by Josh | 26.83 | 26.88 | 9.25 | 70.94% | 0.42% | 0.01% |
| The Footycast | 26.83 | 26.87 | 9.08 | 74.80% | 0.17% | 0.00% |
| Drop Kick Data | 26.82 | 26.85 | 8.49 | 84.68% | 0.09% | 0.00% |
| Hyperion | 26.97 | 27.02 | 13.35 | 23.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| Don't Blame the Data | 26.98 | 27.03 | 13.75 | 20.18% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| FMI | 26.98 | 27.03 | 13.76 | 21.42% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| What Snoo Thinks | 27.02 | 27.04 | 14.03 | 11.12% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| The Cruncher | 27.06 | 27.08 | 15.40 | 5.55% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| AFLalytics | 27.06 | 27.09 | 15.49 | 4.49% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| The Wooden Finger | 27.05 | 27.09 | 15.66 | 7.35% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Glicko Ratings | 27.12 | 27.15 | 17.49 | 1.13% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Graft | 27.15 | 27.18 | 18.54 | 1.22% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Informed Stats | 27.15 | 27.19 | 18.71 | 1.20% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Winnable | 27.17 | 27.19 | 18.83 | 0.37% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Matter of Stats | 27.21 | 27.22 | 19.96 | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Cheap Stats | 27.40 | 27.40 | 23.13 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Stattraction | 27.45 | 27.47 | 23.82 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| footycharts | 27.55 | 27.56 | 24.58 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| AFL Scorigami | 27.96 | 27.98 | 25.99 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| PlusSixOne | 28.58 | 28.61 | 27.00 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |